Industrial Insight
recession warning… | January 31, 2012
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120130.htm
January 30, 2012 Warning: Goat Rodeo
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Finally, while we typically discourage drawing inferences from any single indicator, it’s at least worth noting that with the release of Q4 GDP figures, the year-over-year growth rate of real U.S. GDP remains below 1.6% (denoted by the red line below). A decline in GDP growth to this level has always been associated with recession, usually coincident with that decline, though with a two-quarter lag in two instances (1956 and 2007), and with one post-recession dip in growth during the first quarter of 2003. As it happens, the GDP growth rate dropped below 1.6% in the third quarter of 2011.
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