Industrial Insight

Global temperatures in context… | July 2, 2011

What’s Up Next?

Posted on July 1, 2011 by Anthony Watts

Guest post by J Storrs Hall

Here’s a record of what’s happened before, which most WUWT readers will be familiar with. It’s the GISP2 Greenland ice core record, shown for the Holocene:

I have shamelessly spliced on the instrumental record in red (by setting the temps in 1850 equal); it is the HadSST record.

Here I’ve plotted the 400 years following each minimum in the record that leads to a sustained sharp rise. There were 10 of them; the first five are plotted in cyan and the more recent 5 in blue. You can see that in the latter part of the Holocene the traces settle down from the wilder swings of the earlier period. Even so, every curve, even the early ones, seems to have an inflection — at least a change in slope — somewhere between 200 and 250 years after the minimum.

The hatched black line is the average of the 5 recent (blue) spikes. The red dots are the uptick at the end of GISP2 and HadSST, spliced at 1850. Note that ALL the minima dates are from GISP2.

Prediction of the 21st century is left to the reader as an exercise.


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I'm the executive vice president for a steel casting trade association, the Steel Founders' Society of America. I've got a crazy wife, five crazy children, three crazy people that married into the family, and two crazy fun little grandsons.







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