Industrial Insight

re-emerging as manufacturers… | August 27, 2012

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/08/27/levelling-out-emerging-markets-and-the-new-industrial-revolution/#axzz24lMcIt64

Levelling out: emerging markets and the New Industrial Revolution

August 27, 2012 4:15 pm by Peter Marsh

If the balance of power in manufacturing were to tilt back towards the high-cost nations, it would come after a relatively short period in which these parts of the world have been losing ground. In 2000, the rich nations were responsible for 73 per cent of global manufacturing output, with emerging economies accounting for the remaining 27 per cent. Over the next five years, the figure for the western world fell to 69 per cent. By 2011, the figure had slumped still more dramatically, to just 54 per cent, according to data from IHS Global Insight. (See tables, and note on definitions at the end of this article.)

If the trends of the past few years were to continue, then in the early 2010s, the share of the emerging nations in world manufacturing output would go above 50 per cent, making it bigger than that from the west. It would be a sign that the rich world’s dominance of this activity was truly over.

Shares of countries/regions in world manufacturing output, 2005-2011 (%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Emerging markets 31.1 33.9 36.4 39.7 42.4 43.4 46.0
of which
China 9.8 11.1 12.7 15.2 18.3 17.7 19.9
Other EM 21.3 22.8 23.7 24.5 24.1 25.7 26.1
Western world 68.9 66.1 63.6 60.3 57.6 56.6 54.0
of which
US 23.8 22.9 21.2 18.9 19.8 19.2 18.0
Japan 13.1 11.6 10.3 10.3 10.3 11.0 10.2
Rest of world 32.0 31.6 32.1 31.1 27.5 26.4 25.8
Source: private data made available by IHS Global Insight; UN statistical service; other data from charts in “The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers, Globalization and the End of Mass Production”, Peter Marsh, Yale University Press, 2012.
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I'm the executive vice president for a steel casting trade association, the Steel Founders' Society of America. I've got a crazy wife, five crazy children, three crazy people that married into the family, and two crazy fun little grandsons.

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