Industrial Insight

welfare…

October 18, 2012
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/daily/daily.asp

Welfare Spending Now Largest Budget Item

8:45 AM, Oct 18, 2012 • By DANIEL HALPER


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Regulations…

October 18, 2012
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http://regdata.mercatus.org/query/graph/industry/2-digit/31+aggregate


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read it all…

October 9, 2012
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http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121008.htm
October 8, 2012 Number Five

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Examine the points in history that the Shiller P/E has been above 18, the S&P 500 has been within 2% of a 4-year high, 60% above a 4-year low, and more than 8% above its 52-week average, advisory bulls have exceeded 45%, with bears less than 27%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been above its level of 20-weeks prior. While there are numerous similar ways to define an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields” syndrome, there are five small clusters of this one in the post-war record: November-December 1972, July-August 1987, a cluster between late-1999 and early 2000, early 2007, and today. The first four instances preceded the four most violent market declines in the post-war record, though each permitted a few percent of additional upside progress before those declines began in earnest. We do not know what will happen in the present instance, particularly over the short-run. But on the basis of this and a broad ensemble of additional evidence, we estimate that the likelihood of deep losses overwhelms the likelihood of durable gains. To ignore those four prior outcomes as “too small a sample” is like standing directly underneath a falling anvil, on the logic that falling anvils are an extremely rare occurrence.


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About author

Raymond Monroe is the Executive Vice President for the steel industry trade Association, Steel Founders’ Society of America. He enjoys his crazy family including his wife, five children and their spouses, and many fun and lively grandchildren. Raymond brings more than 40 years in the industry here to share his ‘Industrial Insight’ and other current topics affecting the economic picture of our world today.

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