Industrial Insight

Commodity prices drifting down | April 28, 2014

In the baseline scenario, which assumes no macroeconomic shocks or supply disruptions, oil prices are expected to average $103/bbl in 2014, just 1 percent lower than the 2013 average. Agricultural prices are projected to decline a further 2.5 percent in 2014 under the assumption that the existing improved crop conditions will continue for the rest of the year. Specifically, prices of food and beverages are expected to drop by 3.7 and 2.0 percent—raw material prices will not change much. Metal prices will decline an additional 1.7 percent in 2014 as new supplies are expected to come on board. Fertilizer prices are expected to decline almost 12 percent in 2014, on top of the 17.4 percent decline in 2013, mostly due to new fertilizer plants coming on stream in the U.S., in turn a response to low natural gas prices. Similarly, precious metals are expected to decline more than 13 percent in 2014 as institutional investors increasingly consider them less attractive “safe haven” alternatives.


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I'm the executive vice president for a steel casting trade association, the Steel Founders' Society of America. I've got a crazy wife, five crazy children, three crazy people that married into the family, and two crazy fun little grandsons.

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