The chart above shows the Journal of Commerce Commodity Index, along with its major subcomponents. Each is indexed to 100 as of the date in late 2001 that commodity prices reached a multi-decade low. Oil and metals prices have both risen by about the same amount, whereas miscellaneous commodities (e.g., hides, rubber, tallow, plywood, red oak) have risen only modestly, and textiles have hardly risen at all. In aggregate, the commodity complex is still trading at relatively high levels compared to just over a decade ago.
Shale Boom Tested as Sub-$90 Oil Threatens U.S. Drillers By Isaac Arnsdorf Oct 8, 2014
Shale oil is expensive to extract by historical standards and only viable at high-enough prices, Ed Morse, Citigroup Inc.’s head of global commodities research in New York, said by phone Sept. 23. Oil from shale formations costs $50 to $100 a barrel to produce, compared with $10 to $25 a barrel for conventional supplies from the Middle East and North Africa, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates.
“There is probably something to the notion that if prices fell suddenly to $60 a barrel, the production growth would turn negative,” he said.